10 September, 2012

Trending Upward - By Michael C. Horowitz and Philip E. Tetlock | Foreign Policy

Trending Upward - By Michael C. Horowitz and Philip E. Tetlock | Foreign Policy: The next 15 years will witness the transformation of North Korea and resulting elimination of military tensions on the peninsula. No, this is not our rosy assessment of Northeast Asian politics or the reformist goals of Kim Jong Un. It was the verbatim prediction of the senior-most officials in the U.S. intelligence community -- 15 years ago. Needless to say, the Stalinist regime, though hardly the picture of health, remains untransformed. In fact, Pyongyang has since tested nuclear weapons, and relations between North and South show little sign of improving; military tensions are high.
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One suspects the analysts who wrote that line regret it. But the truth is that prediction is hard, often impossible.