06 October, 2012

Correlation does not imply causation: How the Internet fell in love with a stats-class clich�. - Slate Magazine

Correlation does not imply causation: How the Internet fell in love with a stats-class clich�. - Slate Magazine: When we make a claim about causation, it's not so we can hide out from the world but so we can intervene in it. A false positive means approving drugs that have no effect, or imposing regulations that make no difference, or wasting money in schemes to limit unemployment. As science grows more powerful and government more technocratic, the stakes of correlation—of counterfeit relationships and bogus findings—grow ever larger. The false positive is now more onerous than it's ever been. And all we have to fight it is a catchphrase.